The Struggle To Redraw Eurasia’s Energy Map

Russian missiles continue pounding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure despite President Vladimir Putin’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire on May 9th. Earlier, Russian Deputy ‌Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the suspension of Kazakh crude oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline to Germany starting May 1st. This pipeline, which became operational in the 1960s, runs from Tatarstan, Russia, and branches through Belarus and Ukraine to supply Germany and Poland via the northern branch, and Slovakia and Hungary via the southern branch. While Novak claimed the move to stop the flow of oil from Kazakhstan contracted by Germany was due to “technical possibilities,” the PCK Schwedt refinery near Berlin, which supplies most of Berlin’s fuel and relies on Kazakhstan for 17% of its crude supplies, will be hit hardest. In seeking to wean themselves from Russian oil, the Germans made an error—they continued to depend on Russian infrastructure for delivery. Germany was also addicted to the Russian gas way past the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine, low cost and ease of access being too tempting to give up despite geopolitical dependence.

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