MenuDuring the opening months of the Second World War, things moved slowly first in the period that became known as the Phony War, or Sitzkrieg in German. Following the fall of Poland in September 1939, and before Germany invaded Denmark and Norway in April 1940, the absence of sustained military operations created the illusion of normalcy.
Category Archives: Middle East
The Iran Deal Drives Oil Prices Down, But Uncertainty Looms
The announcement that Washington and Tehran have agreed to end hostilities and restore commercial access to the Strait of Hormuz has had a massive impact on markets. Crude futures dropped sharply. Read the full article here.
Water Is A Weapon In The Third Gulf War
If the current Gulf War, marked by controversy over control of the Strait of Hormuz, does not end soon, the conflict may shift from attacks on the transport of oil by sea to disrupting vital potable water resources. Just before President Trump announced Thursday, June 11, that the ceasefire is to be signed imminently, the U.S. allegedly
Iranian Aggression Masks Economic Difficulties
Since June 7, Iran and its proxy, the Houthi rebels (with their rallying cry, “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam”), have launched more than 30 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting the Israelis to retaliate with airstrikes, and setting the stage for renewed hostilities and escalating
Bitter Harvest: How The Iran Crisis Is Altering Fertilizer Markets
Warfare in the Persian Gulf is hitting markets well beyond oil and gas. Disruptions near the southern Iranian coastal city of Bandar Abbas and the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer moves — are forcing buyers to rethink sourcing strategies that had been established for decades. Fertilizer prices
A Tale Of Two Oil Shocks: Why 2026 Feels Big, But Isn’t As Big As 1973
As the world watches the next act in the U.S.-Iran drama with bated breath, the headlines write themselves: the worst oil disruption in history, a fifth of global supply at risk, and Brent crude close to $110. The International Energy Agency has warned that the ongoing Iran War represents an unprecedented supply shock. Yet before declaring this
What Hormuz Whiplash Means For Markets
The world is fighting a two-front energy war. One front runs through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran and the United States are locked in a standoff. My old acquaintance, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, called this the worst energy shock in history, more severe than the 1970s oil crisis and the Ukraine war combined. The second front runs through
Iran War Will Drive Gulf Petrodollar Capital Flight To…Hollywood
Investors in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates who accumulated trillions from decades of oil sales have long been deploying sovereign wealth funds into Western assets. Their money has gone into technology, sports, infrastructure, real estate, and entertainment. That strategy was built on a simple premise: petrodollar revenues generated at home could be
Even For Americans, In A War, Energy Independence Has Its Limits
Oil prices collapsed from $119.54 in the Asian intra-day trade on March 9th to $89.88 on April 17th, after Iran announced that, following a ceasefire in Lebanon, it would keep the Strait of Hormuz open for the duration of the ceasefire. While no one knows exactly what will happen next as far as the conflict goes, it is
Energy In Flux: How The Current Crisis Is Shaping The Future Of Energy
On April 4th, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “Remember when I gave Iran ten days to make a deal or open up the Hormuz Strait. Time is running out…” Markets have been recoiling amid instability in the Middle East, and it does not appear that jittery investors will experience any relief in the near term. However, this