Russia—the petrostate that spent a decade trying to weaponize natural gas against Europe—is now rationing fuel at home as shortages spread across the country. The Crimea has declared a state of emergency, and other occupied Ukrainian territories are struggling to secure adequate supplies as civilians continue to flee the deteriorating conditions. Ukraine’s sustained drone and missile campaign against Russian refineries, depots, and logistics is inflicting real costs on Moscow’s capacity to sustain both its war machine and domestic stability. The Schwerpunkt—the breaking point—has not yet been reached. However, the balance of power is shifting toward Kyiv.
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